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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/20 11:21

   All Grains Higher at Midday

   Warm weather has corn and beans near the daily highs at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 50 points. 
The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 15 higher. Energies 
are mixed with crude down 0.10. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious 
metals are mixed with gold up $4.30.


   Corn trade is 7 cents higher at midday and at new highs for the week. The 
near term heat is keeping sellers away. Some rains have visited the dry areas 
of the western belt with storm damage coming along with storms. Corn is in the 
middle of pollination this week so some heat stress is the concern. Ethanol 
production margins are going backwards this week with the strength in corn but 
margins are okay. The weekly export sales were at 466,500 metric tons of old 
crop, and 212,100 metric tons of new crop. Midday forecasts should provide 
direction into the afternoon with short covering late in the day a possibility. 
On the December chart support is the $3.91 20- and 50-day moving averages, then 
resistance is the $3.98 10-day which we have eased above overnight with the 
weekly high at $4.04 1/2 above that.


   Soybean trade is 12 to 15 cents higher at midday with trade continuing to 
find light buying as we consolidate back above $10.00. Meal is $4 to $5 higher 
and oil is 25 to 35 higher. Futures are adding weather premium this week due to 
the heat and concerns over the important soybean weather over the next six 
weeks. China is expected to remain active for forward pricing in the near term 
with weekly export sales showing up strong today at 409,600 metric tons old 
crop, 1.52 million new, 41,400 metric tons of old crop meal, 75,200 of new, and 
25,400 oil. On the November chart support is at the 200-day moving average at 
$9.84 with resistance at the 10-day at $10.15 which we are solidly above at 
midday, with last week's highs at $10.47 as the higher resistance levels.


   Wheat trade is 6 lower to 2 higher at midday with the KC wheat taking the 
lead as Minneapolis wheat fades further off the early week rally. Spread trade 
remains soft for the winter wheat, and spring wheat continues to slowly add 
carry. Most world export business remains focused on the Black Sea area as 
harvest begins to progress there, with the dollar making new lows again today. 
Australia continues to see dryness, raising concerns for production in the 
coming months but near term supplies remain ample. The weekly export sales were 
improved at 669,500 metric tons. On the December Kansas City contract support 
is the 50-day at $5.08 with the 20-day at $5.42 resistance.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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