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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/23 11:16

   All Grains Higher at Midday

   Trade is higher across the board at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market is mixed this morning with the Dow up 30 points. The 
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 22 higher. Energies are 
higher with crude up $0.20. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals 
are mixed with gold down $4.50.


   Corn trade is 4 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade rebounding off a test 
of the lows this morning, getting within a half penny before reversing with 
harvest expanding in the west, while the central and east will remain slow near 
term. Ethanol margins continue to improve for blenders while producer margins 
remain stable with futures firming along with corn this morning. Basis should 
see harvest pressure, while carry remains at wide levels with steady to 
slightly firmer action on the carry this morning. Weather looks to remain open 
for the west with rains moving back into the center of the country. Corn 
moisture has been one of the biggest near term concerns as it has stayed 
stubbornly high in some areas keeping the harvest focus on soybeans. The weekly 
progress report should show better harvest progress but still well behind 
normal, while export inspections remain weak at 614,075 metric tons. On the 
December chart support is at the $3.42 1/2 low with resistance at the $3.54 
50-day moving average. 


   Soybean trade is flat to 4 cents higher at midday with trade holding the 
200-day level as support with harvest hitting the home stretch, especially in 
the west. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is 20 to 30 points higher. South 
American weather is expected to ease the drier areas in the second week to 
boost planting progress. Weekly crop progress should show harvest progress 
catch back up closer to normal, with weekly export inspections improving again 
to 2.562 million metric tons. On the November chart, trade is above all the 
major moving averages, with the 200-day at $9.75 support, with resistance the 
recent high at $10.03. 


   Wheat trade is 5 to 10 cents higher at midday with active trade continuing 
with the market rebounding off the test of the contract lows overnight. The 
dollar is moving back towards the 94 level on the index. U.S. exports have been 
slowed lately as Black Sea origin continues to dominate world movement. 
Australia will see more focus coming forward as well as the growing season 
progresses with the FAS indicating harvest potential down as much as 40% from 
last year with some flood damage concerns in South America. Planting progress 
should be closer to normal on the report this afternoon, with export 
inspections coming in low at 169,750 metric tons. On the December Kansas City 
support is the lows at $4.20 with the 10-day at $4.29 as first resistance, 
which we are just above at midday.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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